CarbonStated

Oscar nominations dropped last week, so let's take a brief but all-encompassing look at the awards that anyone really actually cares about.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

This one barely makes the cut, because most people don't even really care about best actress (or the fact that Meryl Streep is the winningest nominee ever, any gender). But with a female Secretary of State it's only fitting we pay homage to the ladies.

Of the 5 nominees I've seen a grand total of 0 minutes of any one of the four films the actresses have been nominated from. Judging by history, movies with 2 actresses nominated in this same category typically don't win. So this is not the year for Amy Adams or Viola Davis. This award rarely goes to that out of nowhere sensation, so that more or less rules out Taraji P. Henson.

So that leaves us with Marisa Tomei and Penelope Cruz. Due to the fact that The Wrestler is hitting buzz stage right now... I'm going with Tomei.

My prediction: Marisa Tomei

Actor in a Supporting Role:

This category has a major fastball in Robert Downey Jr. Everyone knows the Academy takes themselves super seriously, and the inclusion of a strictly comedy performance rarely, if ever graces the noms. In fact, the last true comedy to have an actor nominated was City Slickers, and somehow Jack Palance won.

In this case, I've seen each film except the aforementioned Doubt. Michael Shannon doesn't have enough screen time to earn the nod. Brolin was solid, as always, but nothing really screamed award about his performance. I can't speak for Hoffman, though he's always good. Between the final two of Ledger and Downey Jr. I think the academy follows suit with the Golden Globes and Heath wins the award.

My Prediction: Heath Ledger

Actress in a Leading Role:

This award is such a mixed bag. Of late it seems to be rewarding a fast rising star (mostly): Marion Cotillard, Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Halle Berry. Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo both fit this mold, unfortunately neither star in films that enough people will see to really garner them recognition. Streep is there... always will be. Though she's been nominated several times, I don't think anyone takes Angelina Jolie seriously as an actress... I've yet to be proven wrong.

Interestingly that leaves us with Kate Winslet, who won the Golden Globe for best actress... but for a different performance.

My Prediction: Kate Winslet

Actor in a Leading Role:

No explanation necessary. Mickey Rourke. Role of a lifetime. Crazy ass story. He's gonna win.

My Prediction: Mickey Rourke


Best Director:

I like the mixed bag of candidates for this award. All have done some truly fantastic work and all are really distinctly different types of directors. Van Sant typically sticks to more obscure, smaller budget films. Howard on the other hand is the king of the realist blockbuster. Fincher is known for his tales of corrupted humanity. Boyle is all over the map genre-wise. Daldry excels in the serious, moral dramas with sexual undertones.

In this case, Slumdog is just carrying too much momentum to be denied.

My Prediction: Danny Boyle

Best Picture:

Coincidentally, the 5 Best Pictures are the films from the 5 Best Directors. I will save my extended praise for my prediction for a later date, but as I previously mentioned, I have a hard time imagining that Slumdog will do any less than complete it's mercurial rise with the illustrious Best Picture award.

My Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire